SpaceX’s estimated valuation exceeds $100 billion over Starlink’s potential

Back in July, Morgan Stanley, a New York-based investment firm, gave an approximate value of $52 billion to Elon Musk’s private space company, SpaceX. But as SpaceX completes its course by winning further government contracts and as its Starlink constellation crosses 1,000 satellites, the investment firm has updated its estimated value to over $100 billion for Musk’s private space business.

In a research note published last Thursday titled SpaceX: Raising Valuation Scenarios Following Key Developments, Morgan Stanley’s estimates were noted. According to a report from Forbes, the company listed SpaceX’s latest $1.9 billion funding round and the company’s “continued momentum in winning government contracts” from NASA and the US Department of Defense as key factors for its revised valuation. Interestingly enough, SpaceX was also granted a “bull case” valuation of over $200 billion by the Wall St. company.

Morgan Stanley described SpaceX in his note as “mission control” for the “emerging space economy.” This is primarily due to the launch capability of the business, which carries satellites, humans, and space instruments; Starlink, which is supposed to provide internet access via a constellation of satellites around the globe; and earth-to-earth travel, which could be a possible competitor. “The pieces are coming together for SpaceX to create an economic and technology flywheel,” the company said.

Although the investment bank listed the launch of SpaceX as a key factor in its revised valuation, it was the Starlink satellites of Elon Musk that ultimately became the largest catalyst for the valuation upgrade of Morgan Stanley. Starlink was previously estimated by the investment company to be worth $42 billion on its own, but this amount was increased to an impressive $81 billion in its updated estimation. This was based on the adjusted estimation by Morgan Stanley of the possible subscribers of Starlink from 235 million to 364 million globally.

To reach these numbers, the Wall Street firm estimates that SpaceX would have to spend about $240 billion to build out its global satellite internet network. 

Starlink’s ability, though undeniably ambitious, is acknowledged by Chad Anderson, Space Capital’s managing partner and CEO of Space Angels. Anderson noted that SpaceX could see Starlink’s potential revenue in the $30 billion to $ 50 billion per year range. This means that even a conservative multiple valuation would place Starlink on its own at around $90 billion. And this, the CEO of Space Capital explained, does not even count the promise of deep space ventures like Starship missions to Mars from SpaceX.

“It’s almost impossible to put specifics on what the opportunities are,” Anderson noted.

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