Gary Zhou 
Key Takeaways
- Tesla’s Q4 and FY 2025 Earnings Call is scheduled for January 28 at 5:30 p.m. EST.
- Retail investors submit and vote on questions via the Say platform for potential answers from executives like Elon Musk.
- Top question: Will long-term Tesla shareholders be prioritized for SpaceX IPO shares? (Our Take: Speculation high, benefits expected soon.)
- Key query on FSD: When will it achieve 100% unsupervised operation? (Our Take: Musk calls it solved, possible in US by year-end.)
- Bottleneck for Robotaxi and unsupervised FSD: Data (needs 10B miles), then regulations. (Most active: Investor questions to Musk.)
- Optimus question: Current factory deployments, roles, and efficiency impact? (Our Take: Larger roles and responsibilities coming later this year.)
- Suggestion: Tie FSD purchases to owner accounts for transfers across Teslas. (Our Take: Could reveal plans for transfers and subscription model.)
As Tesla gears up for its Q4 and full-year 2025 earnings call on January 28, 2026, at 5:30 p.m. EST, the excitement is palpable among investors, shareholders, and EV enthusiasts alike. ❶ ❷ This isn’t just another quarterly update—it’s a pivotal moment where Elon Musk and the Tesla executive team will field burning questions from retail investors via the innovative Say platform. With thousands of submissions already pouring in, the top-voted queries zero in on Tesla’s most ambitious bets: autonomy, humanoid robots, and cross-company synergies with SpaceX. ❸ ❹
In this deep-dive blog post, I’ll break down the top 5 questions dominating the Say platform, provide context from the latest developments, share my expert analysis as a Tesla watcher with over a decade tracking Musk’s empire, and offer actionable insights for investors. Expect declining Q4 earnings (analysts forecast $0.44 EPS, down YoY), but the real story lies in forward-looking updates on AI, robotics, and monetization shifts. ❺ Buckle up—2026 could be Tesla’s “prove-it” year for robotaxis and Optimus. ❻
Why the Say Platform Matters: Democratizing Tesla’s Shareholder Voice
Before diving into the questions, a quick primer: Tesla’s Say Q&A lets retail investors submit and upvote queries, with the highest-ranked ones getting airtime from Musk & Co. during the call. Submissions close January 27 at 4 p.m. EST, so there’s still time to rally your favorites. ❼ This setup has proven gold in past calls, surfacing unfiltered concerns that Wall Street analysts might gloss over. Topics span SpaceX crossovers to core Tesla tech—reflecting how intertwined Musk’s ventures have become.
Key perks of Say for investors:
- Direct access: Elon often responds personally to top votes.
- Transparency: Past calls answered 8K+ participants on Q3 2025. ❸
- Predictive power: Top questions signal market sentiment on high-risk, high-reward bets.
Now, let’s dissect the top 5.
Question 1: “Loyalty Deserves Loyalty” – Will Long-Term Tesla Shareholders Get SpaceX IPO Priority?
The Query: “You once said: Loyalty deserves loyalty. Will long-term Tesla shareholders still be prioritized if SpaceX does an IPO?”
This is the #1 voted question, fueled by endless speculation on SpaceX’s public debut. ❽ Bill Ackman’s recent pitch for a SPARC (Special Purpose Acquisition Rights Company) structure would distribute rights to Tesla shareholders, granting early, priority access to SpaceX shares at potentially massive valuations ($1.5T rumored). ❾ ❿
My Analysis: Musk has hinted at rewarding loyalty before, but SpaceX’s traditional IPO path (no shortcuts, per Elon) clashes with Ackman’s creative Delaware-incorporated SPARC idea. ⓫ Pros: It could unlock $10-20B liquidity for Musk without diluting control, boosting Tesla sentiment. Cons: Regulatory hurdles and dilution fears for TSLA. Expect Musk to tease “possibilities” without commitment—classic deflection.
Investor Advice:
- If you’re a long-term holder (pre-2020), monitor for warrants or rights post-call.
- Diversify: SpaceX could 10x, but don’t bet the farm on crossover perks. ⓬
Question 2: FSD Unsupervised – When Will It Go 100% Driverless?
The Query: “When is FSD going to be 100% unsupervised?”
Musk recently called this a “solved problem,” eyeing U.S. rollout by end-2026, but timelines slip like clockwork (see Wikipedia’s epic list of missed FSD predictions). ⓭ Betting markets like Kalshi peg low odds before Feb 2026. ⓮
Latest Context: Tesla’s AI4 hardware is “safer than humans,” but needs 10 billion miles of data for true safety—potentially mid-2026 at current rates. ⓯ ⓰
My Take: Unsupervised FSD in geofenced Texas/California cities by H2 2026 is realistic, but nationwide? 2027+. HW3 owners face obsolescence risks.
Pro Tip: Trial the 30-day FSD offer on new buys—it’s a no-brainer for testing. ⓱
Question 3: Robotaxi Bottlenecks – Data, Regs, or Something Else?
The Query: “What is the current bottleneck to increase Robotaxi deployment & personal use unsupervised FSD? … Data? Regs?”
Data hunger (10B miles) tops the list, followed by regulations—echoing Musk’s Jan 8 update. ⓰ Tesla’s fleet is scaling cautiously in 2026, with Cybercab production ramping but approvals lagging. ⓲ ⓳
Deep Dive:
- Data Milestone: Fleet hitting new highs, but transparency on driverless miles is murky. ⓴
- Regs: Post-crash scrutiny in Austin; states wary after FSD rulings.[21]
- 2026 Outlook: “Prove-it year”—expect 1,000+ vehicles if bottlenecks clear. ❻
Opinion: Robotaxi is Tesla’s $10T prize, but execution risks loom. Morgan Stanley sees “meaningful” fleet growth.[22]
Question 4: Optimus in Action – Factory Units, Roles, and Efficiency Gains?
The Query: “Regarding Optimus, could you share the current number of units deployed in Tesla factories… roles… impact?”
Optimus is shifting from demo to deployment: Internal factory pilots now, scaling to 50K-100K units in 2026 for assembly, welding, and logistics.[23][24]
Breakdown:
| Aspect | Current (Q4 2025) | 2026 Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Units | Pilots (hundreds?) | 50K+ “legions”[25] |
| Roles | Material handling, battery moving | Full assembly, QC[26] |
| Efficiency | 20-30% labor cut | 80% of Tesla value per Musk[24] |
Insight: Giga Texas could see 1,200 Gen 3 bots by mid-year, outperforming humans via FSD tech.[27] Game-changer for margins.
Question 5: Unlock FSD – Tie Purchases to Owner Accounts?
The Query: “Can you please tie purchased FSD to our owner accounts vs. locked to the car?”
Timely, as Tesla ends one-time FSD sales post-Feb 14, 2026, shifting to $99/month subscriptions—and free transfers expire March 31.[28][29]
My View: Account-linking rewards loyalty (since 2017 buyers), aligns with sub model. Expect hints at “FSD as a service.”
Action Item: Upgrade before Q1 end for transfers.[30]
Earnings Call Expectations & Investor Strategy
- Financials: Margins in focus amid price wars; deliveries soft.[31]
- Big Picture: Autonomy/robotics = 2026 catalysts. Buy dips if updates impress.
- Watch For: AI4 details, Robotaxi geofences, Optimus demos.[32]
Final Advice: Tune in live (ir.tesla.com). Long TSLA? Hold for robotics payoff. Newbies? Wait for post-call clarity. Tesla’s not just cars—it’s AI incarnate.
