Gary Zhou 
Key Points
- 🚗 Tesla is expected to generate up to $20 billion in revenues from its Supercharger strategy with rival automakers like Ford and General Motors.
- ⚡ Tesla’s Supercharger Network, known as the most robust worldwide, will be accessible to other automakers’ EVs, starting in Spring 2024.
- 🌍 Various automakers, including Rivian, Volvo, and Polestar, have adopted Tesla’s North American Charging Standard (NACS), contributing to Tesla’s revenue growth.
- 💰 Wedbush analyst Dan Ives estimates that Tesla’s supercharger business could constitute 3%-6% of total revenues, translating to a $10 billion – $20 billion business by 2030.
- 📈 Tesla’s financial strength also comes from factors like strong production, a thriving energy business, Autopilot development, battery ecosystem, and increased scale.
- 🌱 Tesla is well-positioned to benefit from the EV transformation aligned with the government’s carbon emission reduction plan.
- 🚚 The highly anticipated Cybertruck, with over 1.9 million reservations, is set to contribute to Tesla’s profitability in the electric pickup market.
- 🤖 Tesla’s Full Self-Driving suite, backed by neural network training and regular updates like the V12 release, adds to the company’s growth.
- 💼 Wedbush maintains a $350 price target and an “Outperform” rating on Tesla stock.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) is poised to potentially generate up to $20 billion in revenues from recent Supercharger agreements with automakers like Ford, General Motors, and others, according to Dan Ives from Wedbush.
Tesla’s Supercharger Network stands out as one of the most extensive and robust charging infrastructures globally. During the recent summer months, it garnered significant attention by securing agreements with various original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) to enable their electric vehicles to utilize the Supercharger network starting from the spring of 2024.
Aptera, by embracing Tesla’s North American Charging Standard (NACS) connector, was the first to gain access. Subsequently, Ford and General Motors joined in, making announcements that sent ripples throughout the electric vehicle industry.
These partnerships acted as a catalyst for other automakers, including Rivian, Volvo, Polestar, and others, to follow suit. The widespread adoption of NACS is anticipated to drive substantial revenue growth for Tesla throughout the coming years, as per Dan Ives of Wedbush, a leading analyst covering both Tesla and the broader automotive sector.
TESLA’S NACS CONTRIBUTING TO REVENUE
Ives wrote in a note this morning to investors:
“To dive deeper into this sum-of-the-parts valuation, we modeled & projected out Tesla’s supercharger network, taking into account access & revenues from other OEMs using stations across the United States. Ultimately, we estimate that Tesla’s supercharger business will be roughly 3%-6% of total revenues, translating to a $10 billion – $20 billion business by 2030.”
Ives wrote in the note that while the Supercharger Network opening to OEMs is a major part of the Tesla story, it is just that: one part.
Strong production figures, a thriving energy business, continuous improvement on the side of the development of Autopilot and Full Self-Driving, an “unmatched battery ecosystem,” and increased production and scale scope are all contributing to a strong financial sheet for Tesla.
“…we believe Tesla is in a prime position to further capitalize on the EV transformation taking place as part of the government’s plan to reduce carbon emissions to zero by 2050,” Ives wrote.
CYBERTRUCK DELIVERIES ‘HIGHLY ANTICIPATED’
In addition to the strong revenue stream that will come with the opening of Superchargers to OEMs, other Tesla projects are also set to drive profitability, notably the Cybertruck.
“With the delivery numbers representing its flagship model fleet, the much-anticipated Cybertruck remains a hot commodity in the market with the company taking in 1.5 – 1.8 million reservations,” Ives writes.
However, recent figures show over 1.9 million reservations held for the Cybertruck currently.
“While preparing for the launch in FY3Q23, the Cybertruck puts TSLA in a great position to capitalize on the growing need for electric pickups with the electric truck market growing at a 31% CAGR through 2032.”
FULL SELF-DRIVING AND ITS CONTRIBUTIONS TO PROFITS
Tesla’s Full Self-Driving suite is another major contributor to the automaker’s growing profitability and will drive the automaker’s total addressable market upward. Continuing to refine the suite’s performance through neural network training, the suite, along with Autopilot, has already contributed over 150 million miles of data.
There are more improvements on the way.
“Last week, the company announced its V12 update, an FSD package with end-to-end AI for improved driving smoothness through turns while enhancing both decision-making and detection in TSLA’s journey with the aim of achieving full autonomy this year,” Ives writes.
Ives holds a $350 price target and an “Outperform” rating on Tesla stock.
