Deciphering Tesla's Financial Outlook: Q4 2023 and Beyond

💰 Analysts expect Tesla’s Q4 2023 non-GAAP earnings per share to be $0.73.
📊 Estimated total revenues for Q4 are $25.7 billion, with automotive revenues at $21.7 billion.
🌐 Full year 2024 projections include non-GAAP earnings per share of $3.62 and total revenues of $115.1 billion.
🚗 Analysts anticipate 2,161,075 units in Tesla’s full year 2024 vehicle deliveries.
📈 Gross profit for FY 2024 is expected to be $21.5 billion, with an estimated gross margin of 18.6%.
📉 Wall Street focuses on Q4 auto gross margin (excluding regulatory credits) and FY’24 delivery estimates as key metrics.

The anticipation surrounding Tesla’s Q4 2023 and FY 2023 earnings has reached a crescendo, with analysts providing a unified consensus on key metrics. Let’s delve into the details and explore what the future holds for the electric vehicle giant.

Here is the $TSLA IR-compiled sell-side survey of 4Q ests ($.73 Adj EPS) and FY’24 (delivs 2,161K, Adj EPS $3.62). 4Q auto gross margin ex-RC (WS 16.7%E vs 3Q 16.3%) and the FY’24 deliveries guide are the two key metrics to watch, and any comments about FY’24 auto gross margins… pic.twitter.com/AqhGxB2Wgo
— Gary Black (@garyblack00) January 23, 2024

Analyzing Q4 2023 Projections

Earnings Per Share (EPS): Analysts project a non-GAAP EPS of $0.73.
Revenue Breakdown: Estimated total revenues for Q4 are $25.7 billion, with automotive revenues at $21.7 billion.
Gross Profit Margin: The expected gross profit is $4.5 billion, with a gross margin of 17.8%.

Full Year 2024 Forecasts

EPS and Revenues: Projections indicate non-GAAP EPS of $3.62 and total revenues of $115.1 billion, with automotive revenues at $95.5 billion.
Gross Profit Margin: The forecasted gross profit for FY 2024 is $21.5 billion, with a gross margin of 18.6%.
Vehicle Deliveries: Analysts anticipate a significant 2,161,075 units in Tesla’s full year 2024 vehicle deliveries.

Wall Street Insights

Key Metrics: Wall Street veteran Gary Black emphasizes Q4 auto gross margin and FY’24 delivery estimates as crucial indicators.
Auto Gross Margins: Focus on auto gross margins excluding regulatory credits, with expectations set at 16.7% for Q4.
Management Insights: Insights into FY’24 auto gross margins, excluding regulatory credits, are deemed pivotal.