Gary Zhou 
Key Points
- 📉 Deutsche Bank has reduced its Q3 2023 delivery estimates for Tesla by 6% to 440,000 units due to factory downtime and upgrades.
- 💰 The bank also lowered its Q3 revenue estimates for Tesla by about $800 million to $23.3 billion.
- 🚗 Baird analyst Ben Kallo also predicts that Tesla will miss its Q3 delivery estimates, citing temporary factory shutdowns.
- 📈 Despite Q3 concerns, Deutsche Bank is more optimistic about Tesla’s Q4 performance, expecting improved production, deliveries, cost efficiencies, and higher margins.
- 📉 For 2024, Deutsche Bank anticipates considerable downside risk to Tesla’s earnings due to a lower volume outlook, with a forecast of around 2.1 million deliveries, below market consensus of 2.3 million.
Deutsche Bank cut its Tesla Q3 2023 delivery estimates, considering the company’s factory downtime for upgrades, retooling, and preparations for Project Highland. It also predicts a “downside risk to earnings” for Tesla in 2024.
Deutsche Bank analysts reduced their Q3 2023 estimates to 440,000 units, 6% down from its previous estimate of 455,000 units. FactSet reports that analyst consensus for Tesla’s Q3 2023 delivery is 462,000 units.
Deutsche Bank isn’t the only one lowering its delivery expectations for Tesla. Baird analyst Ben Kallo predicted Tesla would miss its third-quarter delivery estimates. Kallo also cited Tesla’s temporary factory shutdowns in the third quarter for its delivery expectations.
The investment bank cut its Tesla Q3 revenue estimates by about $800 million to $23.3 billion. Despite its Q3 2023 forecasts, Deutsche Bank is more hopeful for the fourth quarter.
“For the year, we expect Tesla to reiterate its 1.8m deliveries target, suggesting sequentially improving production run-rate as well as deliveries, likely with better cost efficiencies attached and higher margins in Q4 vs. Q3. Together with first Cybertrucks still scheduled to be delivered in Q4, we believe Tesla’s message could be optimistic about next quarter,” said analysts.
Deutsche Bank predicts more troubled waters ahead for Tesla.
“Looking at 2024, however, we see considerable downside risk to earnings expectations due to [a] much lower volume outlook than the market believes,” analysts stated on a client note. “On the bright side, with the company not trying to push as much volume, there could potentially be less pricing pressure next year,” analysts said.
The investment bank forecasts that Tesla’s total deliveries next year will be around 2.1 million units, below the market consensus of 2.3 million deliveries.
