Gary Zhou 
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is approaching the end of what may be the most crucial first quarter yet. A number of analysts, both on the bull and bear sides, have shared their forecasts for Tesla’s production and delivery figures for Q1 2021, amid the company’s continued efforts to manufacture and deliver as many vehicles as possible.
Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives recently reported that he expects Tesla to deliver 174,000 new vehicles in the first quarter of 2021. Tesla is expected to deliver 160,000 Model 3 and Model Y vehicles, as well as 14,000 Model S and Model X vehicles, according to Ives. The analyst also raised his sales forecast for automotive delivery to $8.79 billion, up from $7.67 billion previously, while keeping his TSLA price target at $950 per share.
Gene Munster of Loup Ventures, a long-time Tesla analyst, is also positive about the company’s numbers. Munster’s figures, unlike Ives’, are more conservative, with the analyst forecasting that first-quarter deliveries would be closer to 160,000. The ongoing chip shortage and the Chinese Lunar New Year are possible near-term headwinds for Tesla, according to the Loup Ventures executive, though he noted in a Twitter post that the company’s long-term potential remains optimistic.
Another longtime Tesla bull, Pierre Ferragu of New Street Research, joins Munster with a cautious forecast for the company’s Q1 2021 results. According to the analyst, 165,000 vehicles will be delivered in the first year. TSLA is currently ranked Buy by Ferragu, with a price target of $900 per share.
Tesla, on the other hand, is forecast to produce around 170,000 vehicles in the first quarter, according to RBC analyst Joseph Spak. Due to the ongoing chip shortage, this figure was decreased from his previous estimate of 182,000 vehicles. TSLA stock is currently rated as a Hold by Spak, with a $725 price target.
Longtime Tesla bear Gordon Johnson, who has a $67 price target on the stock, estimates that the Silicon Valley-based electric car manufacturer will produce 188,000 vehicles in the first quarter of 2021. This figure is far higher than estimates from actual TSLA bulls like Munster and Ferragu, as well as FactSet consensus.
Tesla is expected to produce around 162,000 vehicles in Q1 2021, according to FactSet, down from a peak estimate of about 182,000 in January when the company released its Q4 FY 2021 numbers.
