Gary Zhou 
California is instituting a new pay structure for residential solar systems, which could dramatically damage demand for Tesla Solar products, but it isn’t all bad news.
While Tesla’s energy products, particularly its commercial Megapack system, dominate the field, the same cannot be said for its residential solar systems, which have faced an uphill battle in the highly competitive market. Now, in a further blow to the business, Reuters reports California is cutting the pay residential solar owners will receive from the power they contribute to the grid. Luckily, Tesla Energy may come out unscathed thanks to a new incentive program for energy storage products.
California, which is by far the largest solar market in the United States, constituting over 38% of all solar capacity in the country, will be cutting incentives for residential solar system owners. While currently, these owners are paid an elevated rate for whatever power they generate for the grid, that will change on April 15th. Owners henceforth receive compensation equivalent to what utilities pay to acquire renewable energy from any other source.
This incentive cut particularly damages homeowners who hope the solar system can pay for itself over a long enough timeframe. As noted by the Reuters report, the average residential solar system will pay for itself in just 3-5 years, but with this new pay structure, the average system will take roughly 9 years to achieve the same thing.
While many have called this move a roadblock to California’s carbon neutrality goals and have rightly pointed out that this policy change comes at a vulnerable time for the California energy grid, new incentives are being put in place to balance out this change.
Most notably, California will be increasing the incentives for battery energy storage systems, such as the Tesla Powerwall, meaning that despite the decrease in solar demand, Tesla may still benefit from the upcoming change.
California regulators defend the change stating that this focus on battery energy storage will help reinforce the grid, which has been severely damaged in recent years by seemingly unending wildfires. As for consumers, this change could mean that energy storage systems are more critical than ever to help their home energy systems pay for themselves in a given amount of time.
It should be noted that this upcoming change to incentives comes at an inopportune time for solar installation businesses, who have already been dealing with record interest rates and persistent inflation, both of which have dramatically cooled the demand from residential and commercial consumers alike.
