Gary Zhou 
Goldman Sachs is preparing for the lapse of the Age of Oil, predicting big gains for the companies that continue to help expand the footprint of sustainable energy. As the world begins to move away from petrol-based fuels and favor renewable sources of energy, Goldman Sachs is allowing investors to look at some of the companies that are leading the charge in specific sectors, especially automotive, where Tesla has established itself as one of the more favorable investment opportunities for those who want to support electrification in ways outside of simply purchasing products. However, Tesla isn’t the only car company that is listed, and cars are not the only topic that Goldman analysts are bullish on as the Age of Oil begins its imminent demise.
“We remain above consensus on oil demand forecasts through 2025, and we still do not forecast peak oil demand this decade, though we expect oil demand growth beyond 2025 to be anemic, mainly due to electrification,” a team of Goldman Sachs analysts wrote in the sixth installment of the Future of Energy Demand Series. “We now expect transport oil to peak in 2026, but we see robust growth for petrochemicals and jet fuel offsetting declines in transport demand in 2025-2030.”
Likely expected, commercial travel is going to be the largest hoop to jump through in the fight to decrease the usage of fossil fuels. Global logistics, travel, and business all currently depend on fossil fuels to keep things moving globally. Still, some companies are attempting to reduce their carbon footprint by experimenting with small-scale projects. UPS, for example, recently purchased all-electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing (eVTOL) drones that can help with deliveries. The BETA aircraft that UPS is experimenting with is capable of carrying 1,400 pounds of cargo with 250 miles of range. “This is all about innovation with a focus on returns for our business, our customers, and the environment,” Juan Perez, UPS Chief Information and Engineering Officer said.
The biggest disruptions for the global oil and petrol market come where electrification is becoming a more favorable option. The largest disruptions occur in the passenger vehicle market, where companies like Tesla and Volkswagen are Goldman’s biggest picks. The analysts see growing profit pools for the EV value change in these companies over the long term, especially as they are currently the two most-talked-about forces in the global electric car sector. Tesla’s Model 3 and Model Y are continuing to be two of the world’s most popular electric vehicles, while Volkswagen is rolling out its ID. family of vehicles that have been highly effective for many, despite some complaints about software.
Interestingly, Tesla’s energy side is still a relatively unmentioned player in the solar sector. It is rarely mentioned when analysts break down price targets for the company, even though its solar, battery, and energy storage products are among the most effective and affordable in the United States. Chamath Palihapitiya says some of the biggest gains in Tesla’s stock could come through its energy business.
“There are trillions of dollars of bonds, of CAPEX, of value sitting inside the energy generation infrastructure of the world, that is going to go upside down. When that goes pear-shaped, Tesla will double and triple again,” Palihapitiya said in January.
Nevertheless, the Age of Oil is slowly but surely coming to a close. The companies that continue to push their sustainable forms of energy are expected to come out as big winners, leaving fossil fuel and petrol-dependent companies on the backburner for the next several decades.
