Gary Zhou 
Key Points
- 📊 Tesla’s Q3 2023 delivery consensus is at 455,000 vehicles, as shared by the Investor Relations team.
- 📈 This consensus is slightly lower than Bloomberg’s Q3 estimate, which stands at 457,000 units.
- 📋 The consensus is compiled from various firms, including Baird, Barclays, Bernstein, Bank of America, and others.
- 📆 The official release date for Tesla’s Q3 2023 delivery and production report is not announced, but it’s expected around October 2.
- 🚗 Factors like the Model 3 Highland transition and factory upgrades could impact Tesla’s Q3 numbers.
- 💼 Analysts may overlook a reasonable miss in Tesla’s numbers, but it could affect TSLA stock due to Tesla’s volatility.
Tesla’s Investor Relations team has shared a compiled analyst consensus for the company’s Q3 2023 vehicle deliveries. As per the EV maker, the current consensus for Tesla’s third quarter numbers is at 455,000 vehicles.
The numbers were shared on X by Wall Street veteran and Tesla bull Gary Black, who currently has a 445,000-vehicle delivery estimate for the electric car maker. Interestingly enough, Tesla’s IR-compiled consensus is slightly lower than Bloomberg’s Q3 consensus, which is listed at 457,000 units.
As per Tesla VP Investor Relations Martin Viecha, the company-compiled delivery consensus is sourced from several firms. These include Baird, Barclays, Bernstein, Bank of America, Canaccord, Citibank, Cowen, Daiwa, Deutsche Bank, Evercore ISI, Exane BNP, Goldman Sachs, Guggenheim, Jefferies, Mizuho, Morgan Stanley, New Street Research, Oppenheimer, Piper Sandler, RBC, Truist, Tudor, UBS, Wedbush, and Wolfe.
Tesla has not formally announced the date for the release of its Q3 2023 delivery and production report. Considering the release dates of the previous reports, however, expectations are high that Tesla’s Q3 2023 delivery results will be released sometime on Monday, October 2.
Tesla would likely miss Wall Street’s estimates. This was because of a variety of factors, such as the release of the Model 3 Highland, whose transition in Gigafactory Shanghai resulted in lower vehicle production for the facility. Factory upgrades in the third quarter, which were announced by Elon Musk in the second quarter earnings call, also lowered the company’s numbers this Q3.
“We continue to target 1.8 million vehicle deliveries this year, although we expect that Q3 production will be a little bit down because we’ve got some shutdowns to for — a lot of factory upgrades. So, just probably a slight decrease in production in Q3 for sort of global factory upgrades,” Musk said during the Q2 2023 earnings call.
As per Black, analysts would probably overlook a miss on Tesla’s numbers provided that they are reasonable. Considering the volatile nature of Tesla, however, a miss against the 455,000 expected by the Street or the 457,000 expected by Bloomberg will probably result in some notable movements on TSLA stock.
